September CPI printed 3.7% headline and 2.6% core, with gasoline up 9.1% and accounting for half the monthly increase, and CME FedWatch odds of a hike at the October 27 to 28 meeting jumped to roughly 52% from about 22%; the Fed already raised 25 bp in September, its first increase in three years. Treasuries closed Friday near 5.07% on the 10-year, 4.73% on the 2-year and 5.42% on the 30-year by CNBC's figures, levels that should be read as approximate because one data vendor showed the 10-year at 5.125% and the official Treasury curve could not be confirmed. WTI crude settled at $101.41, up 10.4% on the week, after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics via CNBC, The Hill and Kiplinger, CME FedWatch and Euronews.
CCG takeThe hike question has moved from whether to how many, and gasoline's share of the September print means a 10.4% weekly move in crude is already the first input to the October CPI that lands before the next meeting. For a Puerto Rico borrower the short end is what prices a line of credit, a construction loan or SBA 7(a) paper, and the 2-year now sits only a fraction of a point below the 10-year, so a floating-rate project loses coverage with every 25 bp step while the term sheet it was underwritten on still assumes relief. Re-run DSCR with the policy rate one step higher and fuel marked to this week's crude before the file reaches committee, and treat the curve figures as a working range rather than a settled index until Treasury's official close is available.
Bureau of Labor Statistics / CNBC / The Hill / Kiplinger / CME FedWatch / Euronews